Assessment of Agricultural Policies for Ensuring Long‑Term Food Security

Abstract

The focus of this study is five OECD countries: Germany, the USA, France, Australia, and Japan, and their agricultural policies between 2000 and 2024 and their impact on food security and environmental sustainability more broadly. The study operationalizes policy coherence by means of a multidimensional policy coherence index based on three dimensions of policy coherence: policy goals, policy instruments, and policy implementation coordination, using a problem-based research design with features of policy mapping, quantitative coherence indexing, causal loop diagramming, comparative case analysis, and partial equilibrium simulation. The results show that the overall coherence level in Australia is the highest (0.786), whereas the lowest is in Japan (0.489); regions with high coherence had a composite score on food security (389.5) compared to 300.1 in lower coherence regions and showed a decrease in year-on-year volatility (8.92 percent to 2.34 percent). The benefits of coherence are significant in terms of environmental externalities, with a reduction of nitrous oxide emissions from 8.47 to 2.34 kg/ha/year, as well as a shift from a net loss to net gain of soil organic carbon (from negative 0.87 to positive 0.24 tonnes/ha/year) and an increase in biodiversity intactness from 62.4 percent to 85.2 percent, respectively, when moving from low to high coherence quartiles. A key challenge identified is the institutional fragmentation, which is characterized by almost twelve ministries involved in the fragmented system, in comparison to almost three ministries involved in the centralized system, while budget alignment is 0.347 and 0.842, respectively. Net welfare effects for synergistic instrument combinations, especially for research and development support and extension services, are 1,247 million US dollars, while antagonistic instrument combinations, like subsidies and trade tariffs, cause large net welfare losses of over 847 million US dollars per year. A unique integrated coherence approach shows that it delivers positive results simultaneously on all three pillars—economics, social welfare, and environment—in terms of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, improvement in water quality, and social welfare gains of almost 124 billion USD. The study also finds that policy coherence is an observable and tangible factor influencing the performance of the agricultural system and that it needs to be planned for in the policy design, for the existence of cross-sectoral coordination mechanisms, such as the establishment of joint budgeting processes and inter-ministerial committees, and for the systematic inclusion of stakeholders in coordinating the policy process, because of the significant costs of fragmented governance.